AI Can Predict Prognosis After Lumbar Disc Herniation Surgery

Medically reviewed by

By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter

FRIDAY, Feb. 9, 2024 -- Machine learning models can inform patients and clinicians about prognosis after lumbar disc herniation surgery, according to a study published online Feb. 7 in JAMA Network Open.

Bjørnar Berg, Ph.D., from Oslo Metropolitan University in Norway, and colleagues developed and validated prediction models for disability and pain 12 months after lumbar disc herniation surgery in a prospective registry-based prognostic study. The analysis included 22,707 surgical cases (21,161 patients) in the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery.

The researchers found that the proportion of cases experiencing treatment nonsuccess were 33, 27, and 31 percent based on improvement in the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) back pain, and NRS leg pain, respectively. Across all five geographic regions, the selected machine learning models showed consistent discrimination and calibration in internal-external cross-validation. For the ODI model, the C-statistic ranged from 0.81 to 0.84. Across regions, calibration slopes (point estimates, 0.94 to 1.03) and calibration intercepts (point estimates, −0.05 to 0.11) were also consistent. The C-statistic ranged from 0.75 to 0.80 for NRS back pain and from 0.74 to 0.77 for NRS leg pain.

"The models were based on routinely available preoperative predictors, making them readily amenable to further external validation in other spine registries and potentially implementable in electronic medical records systems to inform about individual prognosis and aid in surgical decision-making," the authors write.

Abstract/Full Text

Disclaimer: Statistical data in medical articles provide general trends and do not pertain to individuals. Individual factors can vary greatly. Always seek personalized medical advice for individual healthcare decisions.

Source: HealthDay

Read more


Every effort has been made to ensure that the information provided by is accurate, up-to-date, and complete, but no guarantee is made to that effect. Drug information contained herein may be time sensitive. information has been compiled for use by healthcare practitioners and consumers in the United States and therefore does not warrant that uses outside of the United States are appropriate, unless specifically indicated otherwise.'s drug information does not endorse drugs, diagnose patients or recommend therapy.'s drug information is an informational resource designed to assist licensed healthcare practitioners in caring for their patients and/or to serve consumers viewing this service as a supplement to, and not a substitute for, the expertise, skill, knowledge and judgment of healthcare practitioners.

The absence of a warning for a given drug or drug combination in no way should be construed to indicate that the drug or drug combination is safe, effective or appropriate for any given patient. does not assume any responsibility for any aspect of healthcare administered with the aid of information provides. The information contained herein is not intended to cover all possible uses, directions, precautions, warnings, drug interactions, allergic reactions, or adverse effects. If you have questions about the drugs you are taking, check with your doctor, nurse or pharmacist.

Popular Keywords